Bay Area Real Estate Market Update

by cindy ~ September 21st, 2009 ~ Los Altos, Menlo Park, The Peninsula in the bay area, Uncategorized, Woodside Comments (98)

Rick Turley, President of  Bay Area Coldwell Banker, shares with us his report of what he is seeing in the entire Bay Area for activity and changes in our Real Estate Market (see below).  Of specific interest are the area reports from mid-peninsula brokers and agents with street level reports about Menlo Park, Woodside, Hillsborough, Belmont, Redwood City and San Carlos.  Further down in the report higher end sales are noted in Woodside and Los Altos.  I know that many higher end sales are now in pending status and will show up in next months sales reports…good activity that lends a feeling of optimism in our area here on the mid-peninsula of the beautiful Bay Area.

 

September 14, 2009

That was the headline in a September 2 Wall Street Journal article.  Click here to access it:  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204047504574386802310702622.html. 

 

This was a really interesting piece which looked at numbers from Standard & Poor’s and NAR.  Following is an excerpt from the article:

“Last week, Standard & Poor’s reported that its S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price index of real-estate values increased this past quarter over the first quarter of 2009, the first quarter-on-quarter increase in three years. Its index of 20 major cities also rose for the three months ended June 30 over the three months ended May 31, with only hard-hit Detroit and Las Vegas experiencing declines. The week before that, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales volume of existing homes was up 7.2% in July from June.

In short, the data suggest that real-estate prices hit a bottom some time during the second quarter, and have now begun to rise. There’s no way to be certain that this marks the end of the long, painful correction that followed the real-estate bubble, but clearly prices are no longer in free-fall. That means if you’ve been sitting on the fence, it’s time to act.

Ordinarily I’d never try to time the real-estate market, but I can understand why buyers have been cautious. Few want to buy in down markets, just as stock buyers avoid bear markets. And for most people, of course, buying a house is a much bigger decision than buying a stock. But with real-estate prices nationally now down about 30% from their 2006 peak and showing signs of turning up, the prices aren’t likely to go much lower. Every real-estate market is local, and so there may be a few exceptions. Overall, though, I can’t imagine a better time to buy than now.”

Although I’ve been sharing this view for quite some time, it is nice to see the preceding quote from the Wall Street Journal, and to hear someone from the media say that it’s a great time to buy.

Now here’s a local look at our past two weeks in real estate:

•          East Bay—. Berkeley reports we are expecting a big push this week as Agents and clients return from vacations, children are back at school and the clock is ticking for loan amounts and credits to buyers.  We still need MORE LISTINGS!  Castro Valley reports the local market is on fire, hungry for more inventory.  Every listing seems to have multiples within days of hitting the market.  Several Agents report that listings are met with up to 40 offers.    Livermore reported the office was very active over the Labor Day weekend.  The majority of Agents were working with buyers and multiple offers are still dominating the market.  Oakland-Piedmont reported we have 10 new first time open houses this weekend coming up.  Lots of open houses are scheduled and Agents are feeling that a lot of nice properties are going to come on the market.   Walnut Creek reported almost every sale was over asking.  Half of the sales were all cash and most of the others had substantial down payments 30-50%.  The most common challenges are frustrated buyers waiting for short sale bank approvals, low appraisals and LOW INVENTORY in ALL price ranges.  Orinda says entry level very hot with many multiples, while upper-end may be taking a break due to last of vacations and school starting soon.  Danville observes inventory continues to decline and they are now seeing multiple offers on good homes in the median price range.

•          Monterey County—We moved along at a steady pace for the last two weeks, have had lots of activities in town and, therefore, lots of people too.  We had many offers being written and about the current usual number of new escrows; most are in the $400,000 to $600,000 range, but some higher and several over a million.

•          North Bay—Greenbrae reported buyer interest is resurfacing and more properties coming on now that summer is over. Should be a good pool of homes to choose from.  Expect strong activity through mid October.  San Rafael is still very active and condos seem to be the target for entry level buyers.  Novato is a strong Sellers market!  We are still experiencing multiple offers on homes priced 5-10% below market in the under $500,000.00 price point.

Southern Marin reported it is getting steady but is considerably down from a year ago.  In the Previews market, most communities in Southern Marin are only doing 50% of the units they did in 2007.  Petaluma reported one property in Rohnert Park came back on the market at 6 AM for $219000 (REO) and by 6 PM it had 15 offers and was in escrow. We are starting to see more multiple offers in the $500,000 and above. Inventory continues to be snatched up as soon as it comes on. Sebastopol notes multiple offers in all price ranges, and double-digit attendees at all open homes.   Santa Rosa reports signs of life in the high end in the last week of August. One Agent opened escrow on $2.2 million and is actively showing two more buyers in that price range.  All three buyers came off her listing at $1.6 million. 1st week of Sept cash is the king in the REO market. We have many more buyers than inventory.

•          Peninsula—Half Moon Bay reported activity slowed down with the Labor Day holiday although listing inventory is expected to increase afterwards – market still strong in the $500k to $800k range, anything over $1.2m is slow.  Menlo Park El Camino reports pretty good sales for over the Labor Day Weekend.  Agents are positive about the last quarter of the year.  The San Mateo office reported city figures as follows:  (Belmont, Burlingame, Foster City, Hillsborough, Redwood Shores & San Mateo) SFR 2008 vs 2009. Active listings up 8%, Pending sales up 39%, and solds up 9%.  Hillsborough has about 96% more active listings in 2009 which indicates that financing and the high end market are still having their difficulties.  Woodside reports still slow, both seasonally and market-wise. Open houses have been OK. Still lots of money around for vacations and many clients are out of town. Good expectations for the fall quarter by Agents.  Redwood City/San Carlos reports that this is a difficult market to read.  We’re still seeing the delayed effects of summer.  The general feeling is that the market will start to be “better”….Now is the time for sellers to get their properties on the market.

•          San Francisco—The Lakeside office stated they are waiting for the momentum to start building for a strong finish to the year.  The Lombard office reported a slow two weeks for traffic and deals. One 3-unit fixer brought multiple offers, but fewer than expected and no contractors. Fortunately, the $1.2m to $2m market seems to be showing some life.  The Market Street office reported not many open houses this weekend, but the ones that were open had good attendance.  The Van Ness office reported good activity for a holiday weekend.    

•          Santa Cruz County—The high end is slow above $2 million with very low volume.  $1 million to $1.6 market is decreasing in value at a higher rate than any other part of the market.

•          Silicon Valley—The Cupertino office reports the Agents are working hard, but things seem a bit quieter. It is really tough holding some of these short sale and REO transactions together.  San Jose Almaden reported that listing count was low last week due to the holiday however sales remain very brisk.  Multiple offers on properly priced properties all the way up to $950K.  Short sale approvals from banks are coming much faster in most cases.  The Willow Glen office reported multiple offers are happening again and we are getting quite a few rejected offers as well.  Saratoga reported the office has been very active. Short sales are still tough going, but it seems like lenders are getting a little more serious about approving them.

•          South County— The Gilroy office reports the local market has remained pretty much the same. There is a lack of inventory in the first time buyer price range. Most properties under $400k are receiving multiple offers with cash buyers having the advantage. With kids back in school and vacation season at an end we are hoping for a boost in listings and sales.

 

A quick look at our high end closings for the past week reveals two Woodside sales, closing approx. $5.5M and $2.3M, three in Los Altos between $2.2M and $2.6M and a Kentfield home closing at $2.3M.  Also noted are 5 more in San Francisco, Carmel, and Burlingame between $2.2M and $2.5M, as well as another 41 closings between $1M and $2M. Correct pricing is still critical to get the proper amount of showings to garner offers.  When priced correctly,  the higher end is moving much better now, and it’s been almost exactly one year since the financial crisis on Wall Street brought it to a screeching halt.

 

This week I’ll leave you all with the reminder that the $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers is scheduled to expire on December 1.  However, in order to qualify, the transaction must be closed on or before November 30, essentially leaving first-time buyers with less than three months to complete the process.  While the urgency of trying to find and close on a home before the deadline may seem stressful, it doesn’t have to be.  Just contact your Coldwell Banker Realtor today and they can walk you through the process or visit us online at CaliforniaMoves.com. 

Until next week,

Rick

Rick Turley

President, San Francisco Bay Area

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

 

 

Menlo Park, CA – August 2009 Home Sales Statistics

by cindy ~ September 12th, 2009 ~ Menlo Park, Statistics, Uncategorized Comments (81)

In August (2009) only 19 homes sold in Menlo Park, CA.  Seven less sales of single family homes then in July of 2009.  The Average Sales Price (ASP) of a home in Menlo Park in August was $1,563,026 versus $1,395,596 in July 2009.  New listings and Current Inventory were down in August – not good news for buyers that have been waiting to make a purchase in this wonderful city.  The Percent of List Price received for a home in Menlo Park was down in August to an average of 96.89 versus 97.13 in July 2009.  The area of “Central Menlo Park” continues to have the highest ASP which was $2,371,500 in August – up $200,000 since July 2009.  The lowest priced area continues to be the Fair Oaks Avenue area down to $610,000 in August versus $700,000 in July 2009.  NOTE**, I have removed East Menlo Park (the area east of Route 101) from the statistics since that area has a high number of foreclosures and short sales that incorrectly effects the ASP for the majority of Menlo Park sales. 

The most expensive home sold in August in Menlo Park was on Santa Cruz Avenue: a 4,120+/- square foot home with 6 bedrooms and 4+/- baths on a 21,109+/- square foot lot that sold for $3,475,000.  The lowest price home sold on 14th Avenue for $550,000 – a 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom 1,440+/- square foot home on a 5,350+/- square foot lot.

See below for the sales in Menlo Park by area for July and August 2009:

Single Family Residential
July 2009	New	Current	Closed	Avg.	Avg. Sales	% LP	Total Sales
City/Area	Listings	Inventory	Sales	DOM	Price	Rec’d	Volume
Allied Arts / Downtown (304)	5	9	3	20	1,198,666	97.40	3,596,000
Central Menlo (303)	5	14	5	47	2,155,000	95.35	10,775,000
County / Alameda Area (302)	9	20	5	50	1,704,000	97.43	8,520,000
County Area / Fair Oaks Ave (311)	3	8	3	20	700,000	104.84	2,100,000
Flood Park Area (309)	4	12	1	7	930,000	103.34	930,000
Menlo Oaks Area (307)	0	3	1	82	1,554,500	91.55	1,554,500
Middlefield to El Camino (305)	7	12	3	22	1,290,000	100.73	3,870,000
Sharon Heights / Stanford Hills (301)	2	6	1	52	1,130,000	91.20	1,130,000
Willows / O’Conner Area (308)	6	13	4	82	952,500	96.14	3,810,000
Summary	41	97	26	44	1,395,596	97.13	36,285,500
August 2009	New	Current	Closed	Avg.	Avg. Sales	% LP	Total Sales
City/Area	Listings	Inventory	Sales	DOM	Price	Rec’d	Volume
Allied Arts / Downtown (304)	3	9	2	25	1,693,500	99.79	3,387,000
Alpine Road Area (300)	1	2	0	0	0	.0	0
Central Menlo (303)	7	17	5	76	2,371,500	94.60	11,857,500
County / Alameda Area (302)	5	14	3	40	1,305,000	100.77	3,915,000
County Area / Fair Oaks Ave (311)	5	7	2	66	610,000	100.41	1,220,000
Felton Gables (306)	2	1	0	0	0	.0	0
Flood Park Area (309)	2	10	0	0	0	.0	0
Menlo Oaks Area (307)	0	3	2	62	2,302,500	95.54	4,605,000
Middlefield to El Camino (305)	1	10	1	114	1,150,000	88.80	1,150,000
Sharon Heights / Stanford Hills (301)	2	6	0	0	0	.0	0
Willows / O’Conner Area (308)	3	12	4	74	890,750	100.82	3,563,000
Summary	31	91	19	64	1,563,026	96.89	29,697,500

 

Buyers, if the trend above continues – higher ASPs with less inventory and new listings available, now is the time to buy!  Interest rates are still low but the loan process is taking much longer than before – so be prepared.  You can celebrate the holidays in your new home – if you buy soon.

Atherton Sales for August 2009

by cindy ~ September 10th, 2009 ~ Atherton, Statistics, Uncategorized Comments (71)

Six homes sold in Atherton, CA in August (2009).  It is interesting to note that the Average Sales Price (ASP) was $3,355,833 versus $3,183,375 in July (2009).  Average Days on Market (DOM) was 28 days versus 195 in July, and the percent of List Price Received was up in August to 96.19 versus 90.64 in July.

See below for comparison of July and August of 2008 versus July and August 2009 Atherton Sales

 

Atherton CA Solds
Mo./Yr	New Listings	Current Inventory	Closed Sales	Avg DOM	Avg Sales Price	% LP Rec’d	Total Sales Vol
July2008	7	30	10	32	4,036,000	97.33	40,360,000
Mo./Yr	New Listings	Current Inventory	Closed Sales	Avg DOM	Avg Sales Price	% LP Rec’d	Total Sales Vol
Aug. 2008	8	26	3	116	3,268,333	90.83	9,805,000
Mo./Yr	New Listings	Current Inventory	Closed Sales	Avg DOM	Avg Sales Price	% LP Rec’d	Total Sales Vol
July2009	8	38	10	195	3,183,375	90.64	31,833,750
Mo./Yr	New Listings	Current Inventory	Closed Sales	Avg DOM	Avg Sales Price	% LP Rec’d	Total Sales Vol
Aug. 2009	13	44	6	28	3,355,833	96.19	20,135,000

 

WSJ-“Yes, The Housing Market Has Rarely Looked Better”?

by cindy ~ September 5th, 2009 ~ Atherton, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Portola Valley, Real Estate in General, Statistics, Uncategorized, Woodside Comments (82)

Has the Atherton, Menlo Park or Palo Alto housing market rarely looked better?  The Wall Street Journal article “Yes, The Housing Market Has Rarely Looked Better“, is an interesting perspective based upon the latest data from the Standard and Poor’s/Case Shiller housing price index.  The Index showed that real-estate values increased this past quarter over the first quarter of 2009, making it the first quarter-on-quarter increase in three years.  The index of 20 major cities also rose for the three months ended June 30 over the three months ended May 31.  The National Association of Realtors reported sales volume of existing homes was up 7.2% in July from June.

So the fifty million dollar question is, does this mean real estate prices in Atherton, Menlo Park, Palo Alto, and the rest of our area here on the peninsula; Woodside, Los Altos and Portola Valley included, have hit bottom?  Our area has been notorious for home values in the past, compared to the rest of the nation.  There is no way to really know if it is true that prices have hit bottom or not but, analysis of sales in our area shows a lot of recent sales activity in all price ranges. 

My recommendation is don’t try and time the market, and buy now.  Interest rates are still low, and we expect more inventory after Labor Day.  Prices are down, and it is possible to negotiate a great deal whether you are a first time home buyer or a move-up buyer.   Make your move now, but make it a thoroughly informed move.  Make certain your financing is already lined up (you are well into the pre-approval process and through underwriting), make certain you have analyzed statistics to move into the area that you can afford that will render the best return on investment, and make certain you have seen enough inventory so you are satisfied with your decision on which property to purchase.  Schools matter and so does location.  Keep in mind that you won’t find the perfect house unless you build it yourself, but you can get pretty close.  Now is a great time to enlist the help of a Real Estate Agent and make your move.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204047504574386802310702622.html

Weekly Bay Area Real Estate Market Watch

by cindy ~ September 1st, 2009 ~ Real Estate in General, Statistics, The Peninsula in the bay area, Uncategorized ~ Comments (0)

Rick Turley, President of San Francisco Bay Area Coldwell Banker, (including the mid-peninsula area) writes about the “bounce” that we have seen this summer in home sales.  He certainly has the pulse on what is going on in real estate in our broad area.  Please read below.

So Much for a Sleepy Summer…..

Generally speaking the Bay Area real estate market has seen a bit of a bounce this summer with sales increasing in all categories—from the entry level homes and condos to the high-end market.

National figures showed June with an 11% increase in home sales and the Bay Area seemed to share that trend with July sales up 15% over July 2008.  As the number of sold units continues an upward trend, price recovery is a bit of a mixed bag depending on the area. The entry level median price is increasing in all counties, due to very little supply against a healthy demand.  The just-under, just-over $1M mark seems to be holding its own, with a few multiple offers out there for the right property in a sought-after community. The higher end properties over $2M have, in the past 30 days, seen more activity than at any time this year, but price remains a critical factor as to which properties seeing this activity actually go into contract.  It seems the higher the price-point, the more critical it is for a very attractive list price.  Sellers who are selling are very realistic about marketing price, and Buyers who are buying are recognizing good value when they see it, and are taking action swiftly. For cash buyers or those with large down payments, this could be a great time to pick up a bargain in the luxury home market.

This week the National Association of Realtors released its monthly existing home sales report (http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/08/strong_uptrend?LID=RONav0021) noting “For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in a row, according to the National Association of Realtors®.”  The report went on to note, “Existing home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.24 million units in July from a level of 4.89 million in June, and are 5.0 percent above the 4.99 million-unit pace in July 2008.  The last time sales rose for four consecutive months was in June 2004, and the last time sales were higher than a year earlier was November 2005.”

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said he was encouraged.  “The housing market has decisively turned for the better.  A combination of first-time buyers taking advantage of the housing stimulus tax credit and greatly improved affordability conditions are contributing to higher sales,” he said. Ultimately these are all very positive signs for our market and are a strong sign that we are moving in the right direction towards a housing recovery.

A few other interesting articles of note for the week:

 ·        Home Prices On An Upswing In The Second Quarter Of 2009 According To The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices; Case-Shiller

·         New Home Sales Blast Past Expectations; CNNMoney.com

·         The Housing Market: Has It Turned the Corner?; TIME Magazine

·        Mortgage Applications Increase In Latest MBA Weekly Survey; Mortgage Bankers Association

·        Home Market Shows Signs of Life as Declines Slow; Bloomberg

 Now let’s take a look at this week in real estate:

·        Peninsula—Burlingame noted that activity has picked up a lot, many buyers are getting involved in multiple offers and are beginning to understand that the market has changed and they need to step up to the plate when that perfect property comes along.  Half Moon Bay reported activity has picked up on the coast as seller’s are pricing their properties to sell within one or two weeks, along with the moving of some stagnate listings requiring many counter offers.  Menlo Park Santa Cruz Avenue reported two homes sold last week with multiple offers however neither went over the list price. Open houses were busy averaging 20-25 groups.  Palo Alto reported Inventory is slow to come on the market. Listings and sales are seasonally slow. Looking forward to a brisk after Labor Day market.  San Mateo reported there has been some more intense movement in the $1.2-1.5 range.

 Several offices are talking about a post Labor Day surge in new listings.  The Buyers seem to be there, as long as the listings are priced right.  Typically August is the slowest of summer months with vacations taking priority, however this month has seen the best Buyer activity all year long for many offices.

 Until then,

Make it a good one,

Rick

 Rick Turley

President, San Francisco Bay Area

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

rturley@cbnorcal.com